Signs of a Strengthening Market: Charts

The number of homes (SFD, condo, TIC) going Under Contract (accepting offers) – Increasing:
(Not adjusted for deals which fall through after offer acceptance)
 

 

The number of homes Sold – Increasing:
(In an strengthening market, sold trends will be a step behind offer-acceptance trends, and deals that fall through are reflected is the Sold numbers, but not reflected in Under-Contract numbers.)
 

 
Months-Supply of Inventory – Declining:
(How long it would take current inventory to sell at current rates of sale)
The graphs shows MSI calculated as # of Active homes ÷ by # Under Contract (light gray), and as # of Active homes ÷ by # Sold in the previous month (dark gray).

 
Median home prices – Stabilizing:
 

 
Number of Homes $1,000,000 and above going Under Contract – Increasing: 
 

 
Number of homes $1,000,000 and above Sold – Increasing (but still far below levels of last year):

 
Below are the just-published SFAR statistics for May 2009:
 
Notes:
·        Median Prices for 1-month periods when assessing all homes sold – all sizes and prices – in a certain district are not generally reliable as a definitive indicator of change in value.

·        MSI numbers in the SFAR charts do not factor in Back-on-Markets (deals that fell through), and since those have increased substantially since last autumn, the MSI numbers for May 09 are almost certainly understated.

 
Summary:
·        SFD unit sales are down 27% from a year ago, while condo and 2-4 unit bldg sales are down about 50%.

·        Average Days on Market for sold SFDs and Condos are 53-54 days.

·        Overall median prices are down 13% for SFDs, 16% for condos, and 24% for 2-4 unit bldgs.

·        Condo sales, year over year, are down approximately 60% in Districts 4, 5, 7 & 8, and down 42% in District 9 (these figures don’t include most new-development sales).