DoorsOfYourLife.com » Market Statistics

April Newsletter

Doors Of Your Life — Fri, 09 Apr 2010 19:41:00 +0000

San Francisco Real Estate

Increasing Demand, Decreasing Supply, Stable Prices

April 2010 Update

As shown in the updated charts below, buyer demand in the San Francisco home market continues to strengthen, while supply (as measured by months’ supply of inventory) continues to tighten. Median prices remain surprisingly stable, jogging up and down in small increments over the past 4-5 quarters, but always staying within a 3% range.

The spring season is typically an active sales period, though some pundits believe buyers have been rushing in recently because 1) the Federal Homebuyer Tax Credit is due to expire this month, and 2) an expectation that mortgage rates will rise now that the Fed has just ended its mortgage bond buying program. However, because of income and purchase price limits, and the higher cost of housing here, the Fed tax credit has never impacted SF like it has other areas of the country, and now a new California tax credit has been announced with no income or price limits. Interest rates have started to tick up a little, but remain very low by historic standards.

New $10,000 California Homebuyer Tax Credit

Federal Tax Credit Due to Expire on April 30

Under a new California law, a homebuyer may receive up to $10,000 in tax credits as either a first-time homebuyer or as a buyer of a brand new home. With the Federal tax credit due to expire soon, there is a brief window of opportunity in April to qualify for up to $18,000 in combined federal and state tax credits. This would require an accepted contract to purchase before April 30 with close of escrow occurring May 1 to June 30. Here is a link to a chart of details and eligibility criteria for both programs. This should be reviewed with your accountant.

Homebuyer’s Tax Credit Chart

Per the charts below: Median price is that price at which half the sales were higher and half were lower — it can be affected by changes in value, or by changes in buying trends, or by unusual market events. Months’ Supply of Inventory (MSI) is that number of months it would take to sell existing inventory at the current rate of sale — the higher the MSI, the weaker the demand. Average Days on Market (DOM) are the average number of days it takes for a listing to accept an offer — the lower the days on market, the faster homes are selling.

Statistical parameters are generalities which may fluctuate up and down, sometimes for no discernible reason. All data is from sources deemed to be reliable, but may contain errors and omissions, and is not guaranteed. Sales not reported to MLS, such as many new-development condo sales, are not included in these statistics.

SF Homes Accepting Offers As the spring selling season began in earnest, the number of listings accepting offers increased to their highest level in well over 2 years.	click for larger image

SF Median House Sale Price The median house sale price, at $745,000, is about 20% below its 2007 high of $926,000, but what is most interesting is how incredibly stable the median has remained over the past 4 quarters — ever since the market recovery began last spring. After its big drop subsequent to the 9/08 market meltdown, despite jogging up or down a little bit each quarter, it has stayed within 2.6% of $750,000 for the past year.	click for larger image

Months’ Supply of Inventory & Avg Days on Market This chart pertains to SF houses. Months’ Supply of Inventory (MSI) is delineated by the blue bars; average Days on Market (DOM) by the dark blue line. The lower these two indicators are, the stronger the market is. At an MSI of 2.7 months and DOM of 35 days, both these statistics for San Francisco houses are very low — at their lowest in over 2 years. Typically, this situation would be considered a “sellers’ market” and would be exerting upward pressure on median sales prices – which, as shown on the charts enclosed, for the most part, we have not yet seen.	click for larger image

New Home Listings Coming on Market Typical for spring, the number of new home listings has been increasing. However, as delineated in the other charts, it is not keeping up with demand — since Months’ Supply of Inventory continues to drop.	click for larger image

SF Median Condo Sales Price As also seen with houses, the current median condo sales price of $649,000 is about 20% below its high of $808,000 2 years ago, but again it is the stability of the median price which stands out. It has remained within 2.5% of $665,000 for the past 5 quarters. Statistically speaking, this is virtually no change at all.	click for larger image

Percentage of Listings with Accepted Offers Another indicator of a market with strengthening demand, the percentage of listings for sale that accepted offers in March was at its highest in over 2 years.	click for larger image

Bank-Owned Home Sales & Short Sales The numbers of these “distressed” sales and their percentage of total home sales has remained relatively stable over the past year, despite ongoing fears of a tsunami of such properties flooding the market. The city continues to be much less affected by foreclosures and “underwater” sales than other areas of the state.	click for larger image

Avg Days on Market: Homes Accepting Offers Average Days on Market (DOM) for all home sales, at 42 days, are at their lowest in over 2 years. The lower the DOM, the faster homes are selling. The hottest market segment in the city is that for houses, so its Days on Market are lowest, at 35 days. Days on Market in March for both condos and TICs were 49 days, and for 2-4 unit buildings, they were 45 days. For every property type, this statistic has shown a very large drop.	click for larger image

SF Luxury Homes Accepting Offers Defined as home sales at $1,500,000 and above, the luxury home market in the city is definitely strengthening. The number of such homes accepting offers was at their highest monthly total in almost 2 years, though still 31% below the market peak in May 2008.	click for larger image

SF Luxury Homes: MSI & Avg DOM The blue bars delineate MSI and the dark blue line show the trend in Days on Market for luxury home sales. At 3.7 months of inventory and 45 days on market, both parameters are at their lowest in 2 years. The drop in days on market is particularly deep, indicating that new listings are suddenly selling much more quickly.	click for larger image

2-4 Unit Buildings Accepting Offers Sales of 2-4 unit buildings have been negatively affected over the past few years by changes in tenant eviction laws, financing conditions and ordinances governing the condo-creating process. This has resulted in increasingly lower dollar per square foot prices when compared to houses and condos. Perhaps it was an anomalous spike in March or perhaps the value equation has reached a tipping point, but 2-4 unit buildings accepting offers soared to by far their highest level in well over 2 years.	click for larger image

TICs: MSI & Avg DOM The number of TIC listings accepting offers in March, at 51, was at its highest since summer 2008, and both the MSI, at 3.5 months (blue bars), and the Days on Market, at 49 days (dark blue line), were at their lowest in over 2 years. However, due to difficult financing conditions, a fair number of TIC listings accepting offers end up coming back on the market (which distorts MSI statistics), and in 21 out of the last 24 months, more TIC listings have expired without selling than have sold. Still, the signs indicate that a market rebound may be underway in this market segment.	click for larger image

Sales Price to Original List Price by DOM Unsurprisingly, the longer a listing stays on the market, the lower the percentage of sales price to original list price achieved. Those homes that sell very quickly (about 36% of sales) often go for over asking in multiple-offer situations. As time on market increases, so does the discount to original list price. And in the first quarter of 2010, for every 20 listings that accepted offers, 9 listings expired without selling (typically due to being perceived as overpriced).	click for larger image

Update Report | SF Open Homes | Online Resources | Property Search

Paragon Real Estate Group
415.738.7000 | 415.565.0500 | www.paragon-re.com

Sue Schultes
DRE# 1422014
1160 Battery Street
San Francisco, CA 94111
Direct 415.738.7053
Fax 415.738.7153
sschultes@paragon-re.com
http://www.doorsofyourlife.com/

Mike Murphy
DRE# 1440395
1160 Battery Street
San Francisco, CA 94111
Direct 415.738.7054
Fax 415.738.7154
mmurphy@paragon-re.com
http://www.doorsofyourlife.com/

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March Newsletter

Doors Of Your Life — Tue, 09 Mar 2010 17:20:45 +0000

The San Francisco Home Market: Bounce Back or Double Dip?

March 2010 Newsletter

We live in a constant storm of analysis and opinion as to what is happening and will happen in real estate. Due to national statistics in December (and other economic indicators), some have predicted a nasty “double dip” in the home market subsequent to the recovery which began last spring. But the market goes into hibernation in December: there are far fewer transactions, mostly by first-time buyers purchasing at lower price points, while families and upper-end buyers generally withdraw for the holidays. When the data is reduced and skewed, it’s less reliable. January isn’t much better because it takes a while for the market to wake up.

Therefore, the market data for February, as seen in the charts below, is of particular interest. While it’s unwise to make too much of one month’s data (a failing of many pundits), it is surprising how sharply February’s statistics indicate a strengthening market. That is not to say a double-dip isn’t possible — the state, national and world economies are still fragile — just that we are not yet seeing indications of one here in San Francisco. Those who have spent the last year waiting eagerly for further price declines have so far waited in vain. (For the record: according to the Case-Shiller index, home values in the 5-county SF Metro Area have increased 4 – 5% in 2009, but the city accounts for only a small percentage of those sales.) It will be interesting to see if the trends seen below continue, as spring gets under way — and what implications that might hold regarding price movements.

Data is from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors, and is not warranted. Sales not reported to MLS, such as many new-development condo sales, are not reflected in these statistics. Median price is that price at which half the sales are above and half are below.

click for larger image	Home Listings Accepting Offers Considering February is a short month (with 2 national holidays), market demand was comparable to the highest levels we’ve seen in the past 18 months. February’s number was 50% higher than January, 80% higher than one year ago (during the market’s dark days), and 12% above February 2008.

click for larger image	Median List Price of Homes Accepting Offers The most recent market data available is of listings accepting offers. (Sales prices are 30-60 days behind the market, as they reflect when the offer was accepted.) And the median list price of homes accepting offers is generally within a few percentage points of the final sales price. Assuming the steep December/ January drop was a seasonal anomaly, this chart shows little indication of either significantly increasing or decreasing prices. Indeed, the definitive trend is how stable the overall SF median price for homes under contract has been since spring 2009: $700,000 plus or minus about 3%.

click for larger image	Market Activity by Property Type House and condo sales dominate the SF market, with TICs and 2-4 unit buildings far behind. The low number of closed sales in February reflects the reduced offer activity of the holiday season, and February’s accepted offers will close mostly in March and April. The average time it took for sold houses to accept an offer (59 days) was lower than that for condos (75 days), TICs (109 days) and 2-4 unit buildings (110 days), which reflects the heat of each market segment.

click for larger image	New Listings Coming on Market New inventory has been increasing since early January, but as can be seen in the other charts, it is not keeping up with buyer demand. We may see a greater surge of new listings with the beginning of spring – certainly the hope of many buyers. This is a week by week chart of the past 6 months.

click for larger image	Homes for Sale (w/o Accepted Offers) Despite the increase in new listings, the number of active homes for sale — house, condo, TIC — over the last 3 months has been lower than at any time in the past 2 years. This reflects the anecdotal word from the field: strong buyer demand; lots of buyers touring open houses; very limited supply of appealing, well-priced homes to buy; often leading to multiple offers on those that do appear on market.

click for larger image	Percentage of Listings with Accepted Offers At over 22%, February had the highest percentage of San Francisco home listings with accepted offers of any month over the past 2 years, indicating a market heating up. When looking at homes between $500,000 and $700,000 — the price range with most sales in SF — the percentage increases to over 24%, the highest percentage for that price range in the past 2 years.

click for larger image	Average Days-on-Market for Homes Accepting Offers The lower the days-on-market, the faster listings are accepting offers. February saw a big plunge in average days on market (to 47 days) for homes accepting offers. In fact, the change was so dramatic, it may be anomalous — or it may simply reflect pent-up demand, as buyers returning from the holidays jump upon an insufficient supply of inventory. It is the lowest average days-on-market number in the past 2 years.

click for larger image	Months-Supply-of-Inventory (MSI) MSI is defined as that number of months required to sell the existing inventory of available homes at the current rate of sale: the lower the MSI, the stronger the demand as compared to supply. At an MSI of 3.1 months, February had the lowest MSI figure for SF homes of the past 2 years. The MSI for SF homes between $500,000 and $700,000 is an even lower 2.7 months. Usually MSI figures this low would be considered a clear “Sellers’ market,” but with difficult financing conditions and uncertainties regarding the economy, the balance of power between qualified buyer and motivated seller is currently more complicated.

click for larger image	Inventory Absorption: SF Home Market The longer gray lines delineate “residual inventory”, i.e. that number of listings actively for sale on the last day of the month which were listed prior to the first day of the month: simply put, listings which have not accepted offers within 1 month of going on market. January and February saw the lowest amount of residual inventory in the last 2 years. Also the ratio of properties which have accepted offers to residual inventory is at the highest level in 2 years. Two more statistics indicating a strengthening market.

click for larger image	Sold Listings vs. Expired Listings The green bars indicate sold listings and the purple bars the expired/ withdrawn listings in any given month. (Again, the low number of sales in January and February reflect the low number of accepted offers during the holidays.) Even with the relatively strong demand in SF since last spring, for every 3 homes that sold, another 2 listings expired without selling. The current market is unlike our (very hot, perhaps irrational) market of 2 – 3 years ago, when it seemed that virtually everything sold quickly. Most Buyers now ignore listings they consider overpriced, and homes not priced within 5% – 8% of perceived fair market value usually don’t even receive offers.

click for larger image	Luxury Homes Accepting Offers This 2-year chart delineates the number of San Francisco homes priced $1,500,000 and above which accepted offers in any given month. Luxury home sales rebounded in February 2010 from the doldrums of the holiday season, back up to the highest levels seen in the past year — but still substantially below the activity seen before the market meltdown in September 2008.

click for larger image	Luxury Homes: % of Listings with Accepted Offers At 19%, February saw the highest percentage of high-end listings ($1.5m and above) with accepted offers since July 2008, an obvious indication of increasing demand amid relatively low supply. A year ago, the percentage was a very low 7% (following the crash in the luxury home market after September 2008), and 2 years ago, during the hot luxury market, the percentage reached a high 28%.

click for larger image	Mortgage Rates As March began, the average rate for 30-year fixed-rate loans once again fell below 5%, which is very low. Many analysts believe rates will increase after the Fed ends its bond buying program at the end of March, and though opinions vary, the consensus forecasts an approximate 1% increase by the end of 2010. 6% is still a low rate historically, but the increase would add significantly to the carrying cost of home ownership.

Newsletter | SF Open Homes | Online Resources | Property Search | Appreciation & Depreciation

Please contact us for additional assistance, information and resources pertaining to the San Francisco real estate market.

Paragon Real Estate Group
415.738.7000 | 415.565.0500 | www.paragon-re.com

Sue Schultes
DRE# 1422014
1160 Battery Street
San Francisco, CA 94111
Direct 415.738.7053
Fax 415.738.7153
sschultes@paragon-re.com
http://www.doorsofyourlife.com/

Mike Murphy
DRE# 1440395
1160 Battery Street
San Francisco, CA 94111
Direct 415.738.7054
Fax 415.738.7154
mmurphy@paragon-re.com
http://www.doorsofyourlife.com/

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February Newsletter

Doors Of Your Life — Thu, 11 Feb 2010 20:19:38 +0000

San Francisco Real Estate Market Update

February 2010

For Buyers, interest rates remain near historic lows (with many pundits expecting a jump if the Fed stops buying mortgage bonds on March 31st as planned); the home-buyer tax credits have been extended through April 30th ($6500 to $8000, subject to various conditions); and we appear to be at, near or just past the bottom of the market (of this latest cycle) after general price declines in San Francisco of 15% – 25%. The buy versus rent equation is at its most appealing in years.

For Sellers, there is strong demand for well-priced properties; inventory levels are low; average-days-on-market (the time between going on market and accepting an offer) are declining; and the percentage of listings which have accepted offers has increased significantly. A good proportion of homes for sale are selling quickly, sometimes with multiple offers and sales prices over asking.

Without wishing to sound like an industry publicist, and without really knowing what the future holds regarding interest rates, government initiatives, and price appreciation or depreciation, still it appears to be a very good time to buy if one’s personal and financial situation is favorable, and one plans to keep the home for at least 3 to 5 years (typically, the longer the better). Conversely, with demand high and inventory low, it also appears to be a good opportunity to sell — if, and only if, one is realistic about existing pricing realities. (Plenty of listings still expire without selling.)

One doesn’t often see such an odd mix of market circumstances, but there it is.

What You Get for How Much Where — in San Francisco

Recent Home Sales at Selected Price Points

For about $12,000,000

Pacific Heights: 6 BR, 8 BA, 4-story, 1900 brick-exterior Georgian mansion; library, wine cellar, cinema room, elevator, decks, yard, 5 car pkg.

For about $9,000,000

Sea Cliff: 5 BR, 7.5 BA, 7089 sq.ft. 1928, 4-level Italianate Mediterranean house (SFD); GG bridge, ocean & Marin views; 4 car parking. Approx. $1200/sq.ft.

For about $5,000,000

SOMA: 3 BR, 3.5 BA, 2773 sq.ft. 2001 Four Seasons condo; spectacular city and bay views, library, 24-hour concierge, 2 car pkg. $1749/sq.ft.

For $3,000,000 to $3,500,000

Russian Hill: 3 BR, 3.5 BA, 1909 Victorian SFD; 3 decks, city views, 2+ pkg.

Pacific Heights: 3 BR, 3.5 BA, 2800 sq.ft. full floor co-op; bay view, 2 pkg. $1205/sq.ft.

For about $2,000,000

Inner Sunset: 6 BR, 6.5 BA, 4300 sq.ft. 2008 Edwardian-style SFD + cottage; 3 pkg. $488/sq.ft.

St Francis Wood: 5 BR, 5 BA, 4083 sq.ft. 1925 SFD; trust sale, den, ocean vw, 2 pkg. $490/sq.ft.

Inner Richmond: 5 BR, 3.5 BA, 3232 sq.ft. 1910 Edwardian SFD; au pair qtrs, 2 pkg. $650/sq.ft.

Marina: 4 BR, 3.5 BA, 3277 sq.ft. 1927 3-level SFD; south garden, 1 pkg. $641/sq.ft.

Potrero Hill: 3 BR, 3.5 BA, 1916 3-lvl SFD; rebuilt in 2005, atrium, decks, garden, city view, 2 pkg.

SOMA: 2 BR, 2 BA, 1450 sq.ft. 2005 St. Regis condo; city & bay views, 1 pkg. $1360/sq.ft.

For about $1,700,000

Noe Valley: 4 BR, 3 BA, 2200 sq.ft. 1906 Italianate Victorian; yard, 1 pkg. $777/sq.ft.

For about $1,500,000

St Francis Wood: 5 BR, 2 BA, 2146 sq.ft. 1925 English Tudor SFD; 4 pkg. $678/sq.ft.

NOPA: 4 BR, 4 BA, 3455 sq.ft. 1905 SFD + cottage; “diamond in the rough”, 4 pkg. $420/sq.ft.

Anza Vista: 4 BR, 3 BA, 1954 SFD; city & bay views, deck, spa, 2 pkg. $537/sq.ft.

Cole Valley: 4 BR, 3 BA, 2560 sq.ft., 2-lvl, 1999 condo; deck, 2 pkg. $570/sq.ft.

Haight Ashbury: 3 BR, 3.5 BA, 2500 sq.ft. Eastlake Victorian; deck, 1 BR apt, 3 pkg. $620/sq.ft.

Nob Hill: 2 BR, 2.5 BA, 1961 sq.ft. 1963 condo; doorman; cathedral views, 1 pkg. $739/sq.ft.

Cow Hollow: 2 BR, 2 BA, 1595 sq.ft. 1928 Marina-style SFD; needs work, bay vws, pkg. $940/sq.ft.

Mission Bay: 2 BR, 2 BA, 1711 sq.ft. new Radiance condo; huge patio, bay views, pkg. $874/sq.ft.

For about $1,250,000

Forest Hill: 4 BR, 3.5 BA, 2800 sq.ft. 1964 Contemporary SFD, family rm, 4 pkg. $448/sq.ft.

Bernal Heights: 4 BR, 3 BA, 3-story Victorian SFD; in-law apt, Twin Peaks view. 2 pkg.

Eureka Valley: 3 BR, 2.5 BA, 1654 sq.ft. 1907 Victorian; deck, media rm, leased pkg. $758/sq.ft.

Inner Sunset: 3 BR, 2 BA, 1455 sq.ft. new condo; 1 car pkg. $863/sq.ft.

Inner Richmond: 3 BR, 1.5 BA, 2210 sq.ft. 1915 Edwardian; solar pwr, bonus rms, pkg. $554/sq.ft.

Pacific Heights: 2 BR, 2 BA, 1920, 5-room condo; near Alta Plaza, 1 pkg.

Nob Hill: 2 BR, 2 BA, new top-floor condo; den, GG bridge view, 1 pkg.

Corona Hghts: 2 vacant units, 1745 sq.ft. 1931 Arts & Crafts; bonus rms, vws, 2 pkg. $702/sq.ft.

For about $1,000,000

Lakeshore: 4 BR, 3 BA, 2135 sq.ft. Contemporary SFD; study, 2 car pkg. $461/sq.ft.

Glen Park: 4 BR, 2 BA, 2100 sq.ft. 1978 SFD; canyon vw, family rm, deck, 2 pkg. $488/sq.ft.

Noe Valley: 4 BR, 2 BA, 1545 sq.ft. 1970 SFD; east bay views, deck, 1 pkg. $655/sq.ft.

Bernal Heights: 3 BR, 3 BA, 2134 sq.ft. 2001 SFD; city view, deck, patio, 2 pkg. $469/sq.ft.

Mission Dolores: 3 BR, 2.5 BA, 1241 sq.ft. 2005 condo; garden, spa, 1 pkg. $798/sq.ft.

Outer Richmond: 3 BR, 1.5 BA, 2050 sq.ft. Edwardian; ocean vw, b’ful garden, 2 pkg. $495/sq.ft.

Financial District: 2 BR, 2 BA, 1250 sq.ft. 1987 condo; huge vws, doorman, valet pkg. $820/sq.ft.

South Beach: 2 BR, 2 BA, 1279 sq.ft. 2002 condo; bridge/city/ bay views; 1 pkg. $794/sq.ft.

Hayes Valley: 4339 sq.ft. 3 full-floor Edwardian flats, 1 unit vacant; no parking. $230/sq.ft.

Central Richmond: 3165 sq.ft. 2 Marina-style flats, vacant, bonus rooms, 1 pkg. $316/sq.ft.

For about $800,000

Miraloma Park: 4 BR, 2 BA, 2005 sq.ft. 1943 SFD; deck, garden, 1 pkg. $411/sq.ft.

Golden Gate Hghts: 3 BR, 2 BA, 1563 sq.ft. 1947 SFD; deck, ocean views, 1 pkg. $510/sq.ft.

Inner Mission: 3 BR, 2.5 BA, 1643 sq.ft. new condo; 1 car pkg. $475/sq.ft.

Sunnyside: 3 BR, 2 BA, 1619 sq.ft. 1928 Marina-style SFD, deck, yard, 1 pkg. $500/sq.ft.

NOPA: 3 BR, 2 BA, 1589 sq.ft. 1995 full-floor condo; south views, 1 car pkg. $488/sq.ft.

North Beach: 2 BR, 2 BA, 1197 sq.ft. 2001 condo; deck, 1 car pkg. $647/sq.ft.

Mission Bay: 2 BR, 2 BA, 1293 sq.ft. 2004 condo; near ball park, 1 pkg. $603/sq.ft.

SOMA: 2 BR, 2 BA, 1316 sq.ft. Museum Parc condo; deck, city vws, doorman, 1 pkg. $612/sq.ft.

Noe Valley: 2 BR, 2 BA, 1244 sq.ft. 1989 full-floor condo; patio, 2 pkg. $627/sq.ft.

Outer Sunset: 2 BR, 1.5 BA, 1875 sq.ft. 1933 SFD; large bonus room, garden, 2 car. $436/sq.ft.

Bernal Heights: 2 BR, 1.5 BA, 1480 sq.ft. 1926 Span-Med SFD; bay/city views; 1 pkg. $524/sq.ft.

Glen Park: 2 BR, 1 BA, 1029 sq.ft. 1965 SFD; city & bay views, deck, 2 car pkg. $758/sq.ft.

For about $650,000

Bayview: 6 BR, 3 BA, 2382 sq.ft. SFD; bonus rooms, partial bay views, 2 pkg. $273/sq.ft.

Portola: 3 BR, 2 BA, 1532 sq.ft. 1941 Span-Med SFD; family room, 1 pkg. $418/sq.ft.

Outer Parkside: 3 BR, 2 BA, 1214 sq.ft. 1945 SFD; yard, 2 car pkg. $535/sq.ft.

Forest Knolls: 2 BR, 2.5 BA, 1485 sq.ft. 1977 townhouse condo; deck, 2 pkg. $431/sq.ft.

Potrero Hill: 2 BR, 2 BA, 1041 sq.ft. 2002 condo; west views, garden, 1 pkg. $619/sq.ft.

Central Sunset: 2 BR, 1 BA, 1232 sq.ft. 1925 SFD; short sale, full basement, 3 pkg. $528/sq.ft.

Hayes Valley: 2 BR, 1 BA, 1200 sq.ft. Victorian TIC; den, leased pkg. $541/sq.ft.

South Beach: 1 BR, 1 BA, 1081 sq.ft. 1996 top-floor live-work loft; water views, pkg. $597/sq.ft.

For about $500,000

Silver Terrace: 3 BR, 2 BA, 1200 sq.ft. 1945 SFD, yard, 1 pkg. $416/sq.ft.

Outer Richmond: 2 BR, 2 BA, 1155 sq.ft. 1983 condo; ocean views, 1 car pkg. $437/sq.ft.

Crocker Amazon: 2 BR, 1 BA, 1068 sq.ft. Contemporary SFD; deck, basement, 1 pkg. $463/sq.ft.

Buena Vista Park: 1 BR, 1 BA, 704 sq.ft. 1986 condo: patio, east bay views, 1 pkg. $709/sq.ft.

North Waterfront: 1 BR, 1 BA, 613 sq.ft. 1993 condo; bay/bridge views, 1 pkg. $816/sq.ft.

SOMA: 1 BR, 1 BA, 670 sq.ft. 2000 condo; 1 car pkg. $739/sq.ft.

Bank-Owned Home Sales

Most bank-owned property sales (aka REO sales) are at the lower price points – for example, of the 85 REO house sales in SF between October 1st and January 21st, 75 were below $649,000 and 45 of those were below $500,000. (The overall median house price in the city is approximately $775,000.) There were only 2 REO house sales over $1,000,000, though earlier in 2009 one in Pacific Heights closed for $11,500,000. In the same October-January period, 46 REO condo sales and 8 REO 2-4 unit building sales occurred. Most of these sales happen in the city’s southern and southeast neighborhoods, though a smattering occurs all over the city. Generally speaking, the bank-owned home market is quite hot, and sales over asking price are common.

$1,370,000: Eureka Valley 3 BR, 2 BA, 2052 sq.ft. 1918 3-story Edwardian; 2 pkg. $668/sq.ft.

$1,040,000: Mt Davidson Manor 3 BR, 2.5 BA 2053 sq.ft. traditional 7-room SFD; 1 pkg. $507/sq.ft.

$979,000: Parkside 5 BR, 3 BA, 2813 sq.ft. 1927 Span-Med; needs TLC, deck, 1 pkg. $348/sq.ft.

$950,000: So. Beach 2 BR, 2 BA, 1019 sq.ft. 2006 penthouse; pano vws, doorman, pkg. $932/sq.ft.

$781,000: Central Richmond 4 BR, 2 BA, 1846 sq.ft. fixer-upper 1911 SFD, 3 pkg. $423/sq.ft.

$722,000: Portola 5 BR, 3 BA, 2856 sq.ft. 1938 SFD; family rm, tenant occupied, 1 pkg. $253/sq.ft.

$720,000: Glen Park 2BR, 1 BA, 1426 sq.ft. 1954 SFD; bonus rooms, deck, yard, 2 pkg.

$620,000: Miraloma Park 3 BR, 1 BA, 1023 sq.ft. 1959 SFD; bonus rooms, bay/city views, 1 pkg.

$600,000: Inner Sunset 4 BR, 1.5 BA, 1860 sq.ft. 1925 SFD; tenant occupied, 2 pkg. $323/sq.ft.

$560,000: SOMA 2 BR, 3 BA, 1588 sq.ft. 2002 live-work loft condo; 1 car pkg. $353/sq.ft.

$525,000: Bernal Hghts 3 BR, 1 BA, 1400 sq.ft. 1910 Victorian; tenant, 2 pkg. $373/sq.ft.

$501,000: Bayview Heights 3 BR, 3 BA, 1716 sq.ft. 1997 SFD; city/bay views, 2 pkg. $292/sq.ft.

$501,000: Ingleside Hghts 3 BR, 2 BA, 1671 sq.ft. 1937 SFD; bonus rms, view, pkg. $300/sq.ft.

$380,000: Hunter’s Point 3 BR, 3 BA, 1412 sq.ft. 1911 SFD; bonus rooms, outside pkg. $269/sq.ft.

$301,500: Potrero Hill 2 BR, 2 BA, 1071 sq.ft. 2006 condo; bay views, deck, 1 pkg. $287/sq.ft.

All the above are specific sales which closed 10/1/09 – 1/21/10, but they are not necessarily representative of typical values for the property type and neighborhood delineated. Exact location within a neighborhood, quality of condition and renovations, curb appeal, “extra” rooms, lot size and many other factors all impact property values. SFD = single family dwelling (house). Square footage is based on “livable space”, which may be measured in different ways, but does not include decks, patios, yards, garages, unfinished basements and attics, or rooms built without permit (“bonus rooms” and “in-law apts”). Square footage figures are often unreported or unreliable.

All data from sources deemed reliable but subject to error and omission, and not warranted.

Some high-end sales were “confidential” and the sales price is a best guess based on final list price.

Opinions as to future market conditions and future price appreciation/depreciation vary widely (to say the least).

SF Open Homes | Property Search | Market Analysis Charts | Luxury Homes Report

Paragon Real Estate Group
415.738.7000 | 415.565.0500 | www.paragon-re.com

Sue Schultes
DRE# 1422014
1160 Battery Street
San Francisco, CA 94111
Direct 415.738.7053
Fax 415.738.7153
sschultes@paragon-re.com
http://www.doorsofyourlife.com/

Mike Murphy
DRE# 1440395
1160 Battery Street
San Francisco, CA 94111
Direct 415.738.7054
Fax 415.738.7154
mmurphy@paragon-re.com
http://www.doorsofyourlife.com/

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January Newsletter

Doors Of Your Life — Thu, 11 Feb 2010 20:13:31 +0000

Real Estate in San Francisco

January 2010 Update

The data below is from sources deemed reliable but may contain errors or omissions, and is not warranted. Sales not reported to MLS (such as many new-development condo sales) are not reflected in these statistics. Median prices may fluctuate for other reasons besides changes in value.

click for larger image	SF Median Home Price by Property Type Depending on neighborhood, SF home values peaked in 2006, 2007 or 2008, then declined dramatically in the 2nd half of 2008 (especially after 9/15/08), and then recovered (somewhat) with the surge in sales that began in spring of 2009. The increase in TIC median price in the 4th quarter of 2008 and the 1st quarter of 2009 is an anomaly: very few sales occurred and they do not reflect the reality that TIC values also fell during this period. (A good example of how median prices can fluctuate.) The main point of the chart is the stability of house and condo median prices in the 2nd and 3rd quarters of 2009, and the uptick seen in the 4th quarter. It is too soon to reach definitive conclusions, but it appears that buyer demand is fueling a small increase in values.

click for larger image	SF Home Sales by Realtor District There are 10 Realtor districts in the city (see map link below). The districts with the most house sales are district 10, the southern less affluent neighborhoods which have been battered by foreclosure sales, district 2, Sunset-Parkside, and district 5, the Noe/Castro/Haight cluster of neighborhoods. Condo sales are concentrated in 9, SOMA/South Beach/Potrero Hill (and this graph doesn’t include the many new development sales that occur outside of MLS in this district), in 8, the greater Russian/Nob/Telegraph Hills area, and 5, Noe/Castro/Haight. The big district for TIC sales is also 5. >>>Realtor District Map

click for larger image	SF Home Sales Percentage by Property Type Houses make up the largest portion of home sales, followed by condos. The house market has held up best in terms of unit sales since the big market changes began in 2008.

click for larger image	SF Home Sales by Price Range The biggest home market in the city is the $500,000 to $750,000 range and its number of sales was stable in 2008 and 2009. The below $500,000 market saw the biggest increase in sales (over 40%), year over year, fueled in particular by distressed property sales in district 10 (Bayview-Excelsior). All the price ranges above $750,000 saw major drops in unit sales (20% – 40%), year over year – with the declines increasing with every step up in price. >>>Foreclosure & Short Sale Analysis

click for larger image	SF Luxury House Sales by Neighborhood High-end houses are typically found in a handful of high prestige neighborhoods, which during the height of the market expanded to the Noe/Castro/Haight area. The northern neighborhoods around Pacific Heights fared best in 2009, with barely a budge in overall sales numbers. Other areas saw large declines. >>>Complete Luxury Home Report

click for larger image	SF Median House Price by Neighborhood The most valuable houses in the city are in the high-prestige northern neighborhoods running from Sea Cliff to Russian Hill, though most of them still have too few sales for a median price to be meaningful (Pacific Heights is an exception). Then come houses in the Noe/Castro/Haight area and St. Francis Wood. The least valuable are in the less affluent southern border neighborhoods — Bayview in particular has been hammered by the foreclosure crisis. House sizes can vary hugely by neighborhood: some known for their large mansions, others populated by classic 2-bedroom 1940’s homes; others with a mix of every type and size of house possible.

click for larger image	SF House Average Dollar per Square Foot Sometimes dollar per square foot is in lockstep with median prices, such as in the prestige northern neighborhoods, but other times it alters the order of value. For example, the median price for a St. Francis Wood house is higher than a Noe Valley house, but the average dollar per square foot value is significantly higher in Noe. But St. Francis Wood are typically much larger and, generally speaking, the larger a house, the less the dollar per square foot it generates.

click for larger image	SF Median Condo Price by Neighborhood The most expensive condos in the city are found either in the northern neighborhoods — especially Pacific Heights, Russian and Nob Hills — or in upper floor units of new high-end developments in the financial district, South Beach and SOMA. The median condo prices for some of these areas don’t imply their luxury sales simply because of the sheer quantity of sales at lower price ranges. Russian Hill condos have held their value better than virtually any other property type and location in the city.

click for larger image	SF Condo Average Dollar per Square Foot Again, Russian Hill comes out on the top of the scale. These most expensive condos in the city can sell for $1500 to $2000 per square foot. Remember that some neighborhoods have parts that are as exclusive as any in the city and other parts that are much less desirable: Nob Hill is a good example of this. This can play havoc with median and average figures, depending on what sells when.

click for larger image	3-Bedroom House Price Trend Chart Districts 2 (Sunset/Parkside) and 5 (Noe/Castro/Haight) were chosen for this analysis simply because they have a lot of house sales, which makes the data more reliable. This chart implies a stabilization of district 5 house prices after a large drop (after 9/15/08), and a fairly large uptick in median price in district 2. Since median prices fluctuate for other reasons besides value, one shouldn’t read too much into the sudden 7% jump in district 2.

click for larger image	2-Bedroom Condo Price Trend Chart These 3 areas were chosen because of their large number of condo sales. The most interesting aspect of this chart is that all 3 show an uptick in median price for 2-bedroom condos. Yet more evidence for a general increase in values. We’ll see if it continues or stabilizes in 2010.

Newsletter | SF Open Homes | Online Resources | Property Search

Paragon Real Estate Group
415.738.7000 | 415.565.0500 | www.paragon-re.com

Sue Schultes
DRE# 1422014
1160 Battery Street
San Francisco, CA 94111
Direct 415.738.7053
Fax 415.738.7153
sschultes@paragon-re.com
http://www.doorsofyourlife.com/

Mike Murphy
DRE# 1440395
1160 Battery Street
San Francisco, CA 94111
Direct 415.738.7054
Fax 415.738.7154
mmurphy@paragon-re.com
http://www.doorsofyourlife.com/

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Broad Improvement in Home Prices

Doors Of Your Life — Thu, 01 Oct 2009 00:07:52 +0000

Broad Improvement in Home Price According to the S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices

New York, September 29, 2009 – Data through July 2009, released today by Standard & Poor’s for its S&P/Case-Shiller1 Home Price Indices, the leading measure of U.S. home prices, show that, although still negative, the annual rate of decline of the 10-City and 20-City Composites improved compared to last month’s reading. This marks approximately six months of improved readings in these statistics, beginning in early 2009.

Click to Read the Entire Report.

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Statistical Analysis of SF Market

Doors Of Your Life — Sun, 13 Sep 2009 01:14:42 +0000

Click here!

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San Francisco Months-Supply-of-Inventory & Days-on-Market Analysis

Snapshot of the SF Market this week

Doors Of Your Life — Fri, 07 Aug 2009 22:01:19 +0000

Sales activity still strong, though number of new listings down (common in summer).

For every condo that sold, another had a price reduction.

For every SFD that came on market, more expired or were withdrawn.

Back on Markets still high, especially for condos.

                                      SFD                      Condo/TIC
New listings                      108                       118
Sold                                106                       94
Price Reductions                62                         95
Back on Market                 29                         50
Contingent                       93                         73
Pending                           101                       108
Withdrawn/Expired             138                       63

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The Trends in San Francisco Real Estate

Doors Of Your Life — Thu, 06 Aug 2009 06:36:38 +0000

As of July 31, 2009:

Statistical Analysis of San Francisco Market Trends

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1995 to Present: SF Median Home Prices

Doors Of Your Life — Fri, 17 Jul 2009 00:27:33 +0000

Please note some neighborhoods have had very few sales. Conclusions could be hard to draw because of this.

1995 to Present: SF Median Home Prices (PDF)

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Quick Statistics for the past two weeks

Doors Of Your Life — Sat, 20 Jun 2009 03:04:57 +0000

New Listings: 354 – stable, up a little from June 5, down a little from May 1st
Back on Market: 98 – up from 78: the number of deals falling through is still very high
Price Reductions: 236 – down from 252, but still very high
Went Contingent: 225 – up from 198: market continues to strengthen
Went Pending Sale: 238 – up from 193: market continues to strengthen
Sold: 187 – up from 157: market continues to strengthen

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